Forecast
Actuals running into forecasts, dates to target, run-rates and scenarios.
Forecasts are a straight-line fit through the actuals, with a prediction interval that widens the further ahead it looks. It's a normal approximation, good enough to show uncertainty on a dashboard but not to plan on. Actuals are solid and forecasts dashed in the same hue, with a shaded range and a label, so a forecast never relies on colour to stand apart. Pass fixed dates, so the blocks render the same on the server and in the browser.
Actual and Forecast
Weekly actuals continuing into a dashed forecast with a shaded 80% range and a today marker.
- Latest, Sep 20
- 22,718
- Forecast, Dec 13
- 25,411
- 80% range 24,929–25,893
- Trend
- +222per week
- Actual
- Forecast
- 80% range
- Today
| Week ending | Actual | Forecast | Low (80%) | High (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10 | 18,400 | — | — | — |
| May 17 | 18,862 | — | — | — |
| May 24 | 18,981 | — | — | — |
| May 31 | 19,483 | — | — | — |
| Jun 7 | 19,587 | — | — | — |
| Jun 14 | 19,606 | — | — | — |
| Jun 21 | 19,623 | — | — | — |
| Jun 28 | 19,461 | — | — | — |
| Jul 5 | 19,956 | — | — | — |
| Jul 12 | 20,328 | — | — | — |
| Jul 19 | 20,787 | — | — | — |
| Jul 26 | 21,252 | — | — | — |
| Aug 2 | 21,376 | — | — | — |
| Aug 9 | 21,886 | — | — | — |
| Aug 16 | 21,997 | — | — | — |
| Aug 23 | 22,019 | — | — | — |
| Aug 30 | 22,033 | — | — | — |
| Sep 6 | 21,866 | — | — | — |
| Sep 13 | 22,352 | — | — | — |
| Sep 20 | 22,718 | — | — | — |
| Sep 27 | — | 22,964 | 22,562 | 23,367 |
| Oct 4 | — | 23,187 | 22,779 | 23,594 |
| Oct 11 | — | 23,409 | 22,995 | 23,823 |
| Oct 18 | — | 23,631 | 23,211 | 24,051 |
| Oct 25 | — | 23,854 | 23,427 | 24,280 |
| Nov 1 | — | 24,076 | 23,643 | 24,510 |
| Nov 8 | — | 24,299 | 23,858 | 24,740 |
| Nov 15 | — | 24,521 | 24,073 | 24,970 |
| Nov 22 | — | 24,744 | 24,287 | 25,200 |
| Nov 29 | — | 24,966 | 24,501 | 25,431 |
| Dec 6 | — | 25,188 | 24,715 | 25,662 |
| Dec 13 | — | 25,411 | 24,929 | 25,893 |
Date to Target
When the trend reaches a target, with an 80% range of dates, against the deadline.
Projected to reach 10,000 by Nov 3
58 days before the deadline, with 9,115 paying customers now.
- Projected date
- 80% range
- Deadline
- Projected date
- Nov 3
- 80% range
- Oct 27 – Nov 10
- Current trend
- +156 per week
- Needed to hit the deadline
- +65 per week
Run-Rate
Month to date, projected to the end of the month at the daily run-rate, with what's needed per day to hit the target.
$38,420so far
Day 25 of 30- So far
- Projected
- Target $48,000
- Projected total
- $46,104
- 96% of target
- Projected short
- $1,896
- Daily run-rate
- $1,537
- Needed per day
- $1,916
- 5 days left
Scenarios
Low, base and high growth scenarios from the last actual, as a chart and a table with when each one reaches the target.
- Actual
- Base
- Low to high
- Target $250,000
| Month | Actual | High | Base | Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $182,400 | — | — | — |
| Apr 2026 | $188,900 | — | — | — |
| May 2026 | $193,100 | — | — | — |
| Jun 2026 | $201,700 | — | — | — |
| Jul 2026 | $207,300 | — | — | — |
| Aug 2026 | $214,200 | — | — | — |
| Sep 2026 | — | $224,910 | $220,626 | $216,342 |
| Oct 2026 | — | $236,156 | $227,245 | $218,505 |
| Nov 2026 | — | $247,963 | $234,062 | $220,690 |
| Dec 2026 | — | $260,361 | $241,084 | $222,897 |
| Jan 2027 | — | $273,380 | $248,317 | $225,126 |
| Feb 2027 | — | $287,048 | $255,766 | $227,378 |
| Scenario | Growth | Feb 2027 | Change | Reaches target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
HighEnterprise plan launches in October | +5% a month | $287,048 | +34% | Dec 2026 |
BaseCurrent growth continues | +3% a month | $255,766 | +19.4% | Feb 2027 |
LowChurn rises to last winter’s level | +1% a month | $227,378 | +6.2% | Not by Feb 2027 |